The outbreak of the novel coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pandemic generated remarkable economic adjustments with severe penalties affecting diverse communities and people around the globe (Brunnermeier et al. 2020). Spreading swiftly across territorial boundaries, along the fundamental arteries of the global economy, the dispersion of the COVID-19 virus immensely benefited from the structural interlinkages and weaknesses of globalisation. As a consequence, this propelled a global health crisis into a global economic shock that significantly affected the welfare of the most vulnerable populaces (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD] 2020a).

Since the COVID-19 virus initially commenced to spread in the late 2019, approximately 492.19 million cumulative cases have been registered globally, with 6.16 million deaths by the beginning of April 2022. The African continent witnessed four major COVID-19 waves, driven by successive variants of the coronavirus, since 2020. By September 2022, Africa had recorded about 8.3 million cases and 166 354 deaths (World Health Organization [WHO] 2022). The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), in particular, recorded a 747% year-on-year surge in COVID-19 cases between September 2021 (364 927 cases) and September 2022 (2 753 502 cases). On a positive note, the rate of recoveries in the COMESA region increased from 67.82% to 86.91% over the same period. This could partially be the reason behind the reduction in the rate of COVID-related deaths recorded in COMESA from 3.13% in September 2020 to 2.82% in September 2021 (COMESA 2021).

It is not a secret that the prospective ramifications for trade and economic development became ostensible during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. during the first quarter of 2020). In fact, the pandemic will undoubtedly be remembered as the main driving force in the trade and economic development discourse of 2020 and indeed spilling over into 2021 as well as 2022 and somehow beyond (Miroudot 2020). Hence, despite the expectation that international trade is vital to save lives and livelihoods in a unique global health calamity, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the global trade in both merchandise and services (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] 2020). This mainly emanated from the disruptions in global production and supply chains because of restrictions in the movement of container ships, increases in the prices of air cargo freight, and confinements of people as a result of lockdown restrictions invoked by various countries, which interrupted the mobility of both freight and people (Galanakis 2020; Shih 2020).

In the COMESA region, countries also instituted numerous measures including lockdowns to monitor and curb the proliferation of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Chong, Li and Yip (2021) argue that lockdown measures ushered in negative effects on employment, production, tariff income, and government fiscal stability. Banga et al. (2020) also contend that the isolation and shutdown policies rolled out by several countries across the globe, which entailed limiting or stopping work-related activities, led to a reduction in trade volume, more especially cross-border trade. Hence, the measures introduced to harness the spread of the pandemic in the COMESA region affected the volume of trade through several supply- and demand-side conduits.

The supply-side effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in COMESA exporting countries manifested as a reduction in production scale and the export supply in the affected member countries (Hayakawa & Mukunoki 2021). The general expectation was that exports would drop outstandingly in sectors and countries where remote work or functioning was triflingly practical. Furthermore, the pandemic led to a decline in commodity prices, which affected COMESA oil and mineral products exporters, resulting in a sharp decline in export earnings and balance of payment challenges (COMESA 2020). The demand-side effects, on the other hand, mainly emanated from the decrease in aggregate demand in the respective COMESA importing countries, following the decline in consumer earnings and their visits to retail outlets.

An overview of the variations in the growth of intra-COMESA trade between 2019 and 2020 at country level is shown in Table 1-A2 in Appendix 2. It is apparent that intra-COMESA imports declined in 8 of the 14 COMESA members covered in this article. Zambia, Egypt and Mauritius registered the highest declines of 0.40%, 0.39% and 0.33%, respectively. However, intra-COMESA imports increased in the following six COMESA countries: Uganda (0.36%), Zimbabwe (0.23%), Malawi (0.12%), Burundi (0.11%), Ethiopia (0.07%) and Comoros (0.02). Intra-COMESA exports, on the other hand, weakened in 9 of the 14 COMESA countries with the highest declines of 0.86% and 0.64% being, correspondingly, registered in Seychelles and Comoros. However, intra-COMESA exports improved in 5 of the 14 COMESA members with Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo witnessing a respective 0.82% and 0.35% growth in their intra-COMESA exports.

While it is obvious that the COVID-19 pandemic generated global instability in economic activity, relatively little is known about the effects of this pandemic on international trade within particular regional economic communities, and more specifically in the COMESA region. It is against this background that this article seeks to investigate the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on regional trade, with a specific focus on the COMESA regional trading bloc. Within the context of this prime objective, the present article specifically quantifies the effect of COVID-19 on the volume of intra-COMESA imports and exports. The article additionally assesses the impact of COVID-19 in the COMESA region within the framework of the traditional gravity model variables during the same period. Hence, this article contributes to the COVID-19 epidemic knowledge base and the existing international trade COVID-19 nexus by enhancing the understanding of the impact of global health shocks on economic outcomes from the perspective of developing countries. Through the application of the PPML method, the article further presents new empirical evidence that can be a point of departure for policymakers in COMESA to formulate future regional response mechanisms to pandemics such as COVID-19.

The article employed cross-sectional trade data from 14 COMESA member countries in 2020. The period was selected on the basis that the COVID-19 pandemic was at its peak with most countries registering peaks of confirmed cases and deaths during this period. Again, most countries were still learning how to behave and considering ways to respond to this global pandemic. Following Hayakawa and Mukunoki (2021) and by employing a cross-sectional type gravity model, this article explicitly regressed intra-COMESA trade values on various measures of the severity of COVID-19 during 2020. In this regard, the subsequent three measures of the severity of COVID-19 were utilised: (1) the number of COVID-19 cases in the importing and exporting countries; (2) the number of COVID-19 deaths in the importing and exporting countries; and (3) the share of days in the year when stay-at-home orders were in effect in importing countries or when workplace-closing orders were in effect in exporting countries. The article also regressed intra-COMESA trade values on the following traditional gravity model variables: gross domestic product (GDP), distance, common border, common language, common coloniser, and landlockedness.

The rest of the article is structured as follows: first, insights from the theoretical and empirical literature of the COVID-19 pandemic are provided; this is followed by the data and empirical approach utilised to achieve the objectives of this article, and a presentation of its results and discussions; and lastly, the conclusions and recommendations of this article are provided.

Epidemics are not a new phenomenon, and their emergence has at all times challenged human existence throughout documented history. In fact, the outbreak of COVID-19 is not the first communicable disease with intense economic and trade effects around the globe (Morens et al. 2020). Similar to other epidemics, such as the Spanish flu of 1918, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted global production, consumption and trade patterns, both directly and indirectly, as a result of lockdowns, social distancing and other related measures introduced by various countries to curb the spread of the disease (Espitia et al. 2022; Karlsson et al. 2012). As such, temporary shutdowns of manufacturing plants in China, Europe, the United States and other countries led to a decline in the supply of exportable merchandise and to a disruption in global supply chains (GSCs). Interruptions in the transportation sector also meant proliferations in trade costs (Vo & Tran 2021). The global maritime transportation system, in particular, was ruffled by container imbalances, port congestion and low productivity (Cullinane & Haralambides 2021). Accordingly, the penalties were felt worldwide, given the interconnectedness of the GSCs.

The theoretical framework of this article on the relationship between COVID-19 and trade is, therefore, founded on the understanding that pandemics affect both the supply- and demand-sides of an economy (Hayakawa & Mukunoki 2021). In this setting, the channels through which the trade effects of COVID-19 can be analysed revolve around its direct and indirect effects on exporting countries (supply-side) and importing countries (demand-side).

This article commences by presenting the results of the baseline estimation, with standard errors clustered by country pairs, shown in Table 3. To measure the extent of COVID-19 damage on intra-COMESA trade, the article took natural logarithms of the number of new COVID-19 cases (Column 1), natural logarithms of new COVID-19 deaths (Column 2) and the percentage share of the number of days with lockdown measures (Column 3) in COMESA during 2020. Only the coefficients of new COVID-19 cases and lockdown measures were found to be significant and had the expected signs in the exporting country. As such, a percentage increase in new COVID-19 cases and the share of lockdown days in the exporting country result in a corresponding 0.33% and 2.37% decline in intra-COMESA trade.

While the coefficient of the number of new COVID-19 deaths had the expected sign in the exporting country, it was found to be insignificant. In the case of the importing country, the effect of COVID-19 on intra-COMESA trade was found to be insignificant regardless of the COVID-19 quantifying measure. Again, all the quantifying measures did not have the expected sign in the importing country. Conducting the Wald test that the coefficients of the COVID-19 effects in importing and exporting countries are equal, this article found insignificant differences, except for new COVID-19 deaths (Table 3, Column 2) on the relative sizes of the margin effects.

The results of the traditional gravity model variables are shown in Table 4. In all the three estimated models, the coefficients of common border, common coloniser, distance and importing and exporting countries’ GDP are found to be significant, and all have the expected sign. In econometric terms, sharing a common border with the importer increased intra-COMESA trade by 156.00%, while sharing a common coloniser increased intra-COMESA trade by 171.83%. A percentage increase in the GDP of the importing and the exporting country resulted in 0.40% and 1.12% increase in intra-COMESA trade, respectively. However, a 1% increase in distance between the importer and the exporter resulted in a 1.07% decline in intra-COMESA trade.

Being landlocked was found to be significant in the importing country in Model 1, but the level of significance is weak. As such, being landlocked in both the importing and exporting countries and sharing a common language is found to be insignificant. In addition, while being landlocked has the expected sign, sharing a common language does not have the expected sign. The R² in all the three estimated models is above 61%, therefore suggesting that the variation in intra-COMESA trade is explained for by the regression.

In terms of COVID-19 variables, the findings of this article are partially empirically supported by Hayakawa and Mukunoki (2021) who found significantly negative effects of COVID-19 on international trade in the exporting country. Moreover, Kumari and Bharti (2021) found the negative impact of COVID-19 on exports within the South Asian countries. The findings of this article are also consistent with the results of Khorana et al. (2021) who found that high numbers of COVID-19 cases, including deaths, in low-income importing countries led to a deterioration in commonwealth exports.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global production, consumption and trade patterns, both directly and indirectly, as a consequence of lockdowns, social distancing and other related measures instituted by several countries to mitigate the spread of the virus. This article investigated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional trade, with a specific focus on the COMESA regional trading bloc. Within the context of this prime objective, the effect of COVID-19 on the volume of intra-COMESA imports and exports was specifically quantified by employing a cross-sectional type gravity model and explicitly regressing intra-COMESA trade values on various measures of the severity of COVID-19 during 2020. The article further assessed the impact of COVID-19 in the COMESA region within the framework of the traditional gravity model variables, during the same period, by regressing intra-COMESA trade values on the following traditional gravity model variables: GDP, distance, common border, common language, common coloniser, and landlockedness.

The results of this article confirm new COVID-19 cases and lockdown measures to be significant and possessing the expected signs in the COMESA exporting country. As such, a percentage increase in new COVID-19 cases and the share of lockdown days in the exporting country result in a corresponding 0.33% and 2.37% decline in intra-COMESA trade. COVID-19 deaths in the exporting country, however, had the expected sign but were found to be insignificant in intra-COMESA trade. In the importing country, the effect of COVID-19 on intra-COMESA trade was found to be insignificant, regardless of the COVID-19 quantifying measure, and all the quantifying measures did not have the expected sign.

In terms of the traditional gravity model variables, common border, common coloniser, distance and importing and exporting countries’ GDP significantly affected intra-COMESA trade in 2020. Sharing a common border with the importer increased intra-COMESA trade by 156.00% while sharing a common coloniser increased intra-COMESA trade by 171.83%. An increase in the GDP of the importing and the exporting country by 1% resulted in 0.40% and 1.12% increase in intra-COMESA trade, respectively. However, a percentage increase in distance between the importer and the exporter resulted in a 1.07% decline in intra-COMESA trade. Being landlocked in both the importing and exporting countries and sharing a common language were found to be insignificant in explaining intra-COMESA trade in 2020.

Nonetheless, even though the pandemic adversely affected global trade, prospects have improved with indications of a recovery in merchandise trade and industrial production noticeably emerging in the fourth quarter of 2020. This trend is expected to continue into the future, and it is sensible to expect the recovery in global trade to draw significantly from the merits of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which has the capacity to generate a supply-side miracle that will culminate in diminishing trade costs.

It is acknowledged in this article that a number of studies have investigated the trade impact of COVID-19 and related trade aspects of COVID-19 mitigating measures, products and vaccines production and distribution. However, relatively little is known about the effects of this pandemic on international trade within particular regional economic communities, and more specifically in the COMESA region. The nature and novelty of COVID-19 meant that the process of navigating through and mitigating its economic and trade impacts is that of learning by doing. The current article is, therefore, significant in shaping future policy reactions by national governments when faced with a pandemic of comparable nature. It also contributes to the COVID-19 epidemic knowledge base and the existing international trade COVID-19 nexus.

Despite the substantial uncertainties and trade disruptions that originate from pandemics such as the COVID-19, there are 6 critical things that this article recommends to be done in order to sustain current and future trade flows within the regional bloc such as the COMESA and the world in its entirety (OECD 2020): (1) inspiring confidence in trade and international markets by enhancing openness regarding trade-related policy positions and objectives; (2) keeping supply chains operational at all times, particularly for essential merchandise such as food and health provisions; (3) avoiding escalating the consequences of pandemics, through avoidable export barriers and other trade-related restrictions; (4) promoting inoculation drives and vaccine manufacturing during pandemics by temporarily waiving certain intellectual property rights provisions covering the production of related vaccines; (5) the COMESA regional bloc and the African continent, in general, should expand their respective pharmaceutical production and research and development capacity to be able to respond and advance their future inoculation drives intended to restrain the trade-related impacts of communicable diseases of the COVID-19 nature; and (6) thinking beyond the prevailing economic growth and development circumstances when confronted with global health crisis.

Given the data constraints encountered in this article, future research can be directed towards the utilisation of econometric techniques other than the gravity model and the performing of an analysis that covers all COMESA countries, subject to data availability. The COMESA regional bloc and the African continent, in general, inclusively reported fewer COVID-19 cases per capita than other regions, though the testing rates and capacity in Africa were also low. Hence, in order to contain the adversities ushered in by the emergence of the COVID-19 virus and its related variants, African countries needed to encourage their populaces to be vaccinated and to also scale up their respective capacity to distribute vaccines to remote areas.